Change vs. Status Quo: Are We Hardwired for Caution?
We face major crossroads throughout our lives that shape our well-being and satisfaction - whether to quit a job, pursue more education, end a relationship, or change health habits like smoking or dieting. Yet, assessing whether we make optimal choices at these junctures is remarkably difficult.
Occam’s Razor: Cutting Through Complexity in Finance
We overcomplicate things. Even simple concepts are twisted and tangled into complicated webs of ideas. This is not simply a matter of personal observation; it is a cognitive bias known as complexity bias. My favorite tool to combat our tendency to overcomplicate matters is Occam’s Razor.
The Map is Not the Territory: Understanding the Model to Reality Gap
Maps are abstractions of reality - a reduction of what they represent. This reduction is necessary but inherently flawed. Even the most precise maps do not fully and accurately depict the territory they represent. This is true, too, of the mental maps we've charted through our experiences and beliefs that help us simplify an intricate reality into something comprehensible.
Can a Flutter Spark a Storm? The Butterfly Effect and Financial Markets
Can a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil trigger a tornado in Texas?
In 1961, Edward Lorenz, an American mathematician and meteorologist, studied weather patterns and developed computer models to forecast weather conditions. During his research, he made a remarkable discovery. He observed that even the slightest changes in the input parameters of his model resulted in significantly different outcomes. He coined this phenomenon “sensitive dependence on initial conditions," meaning that minor variations in the initial conditions could lead to significant differences in forecasted weather patterns.
The Handicapper's Fallacy: Unraveling the Myth of More Data, More Success
This past weekend marked the conclusion of the 149th Kentucky Derby, a renowned event called the "Run for the Roses" and the "Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports." During this time of year, I am reminded of a 1973 study by Paul Slovic - coincidentally, that's the same year Secretariat won the derby in a still-standing record-setting fashion. The important study showcased the influence of information on horse bettors, which is also relevant to investors.
Beyond Certainty: Embracing the Unpredictable Universe of Financial Planning
Dune author Frank Herbert wrote, "Deep in the human unconscious is a pervasive need for a logical universe that makes sense. But the real universe is always one step beyond logic."
I don't sell certainty, and no one else should either. Unfortunately, in many cases, that's what financial service providers peddle. Like television pundits, many advisors make a living by being opinionated and selling a view of the future based on an illusion of expertise.
Fun Coupons and Values: Understanding the Psychology of Spending
What does our use of money say about us? How do we decide on what to spend?
Sometimes money is fun coupons, but it can also be relaxation coupons, health coupons, education coupons, experience coupons, survival coupons, or whatever else we need.
Ultimately, money is value coupons -our spending results from (and reflects) our value system.
Contemplating the Sage: Applying Stoic Principles to Investment Decision-Making
In many ways investing is a microcosm of life; the same traits and behaviors that benefit investors also aid people in other areas of life. Thus, even if you don’t consider yourself a Stoic, you may find their techniques helpful when you encounter financial challenges — like managing the stress of a bear market.
Unleashing the Power of the Subconscious Mind: Lessons from Arnold Van Den Berg
Arnold Van Den Berg survived the Holocaust but was left angry, confused, and depressed. His parents miraculously survived Auschwitz, but his early years were filled with angst. A damaged young man emerged from the war, but Arnold recovered to become a top-class money manager by learning to control his mind - a true rags to riches story.
Unlocking the Magic of Compounding: Why 'Later' is Your Biggest Enemy
One word can change the course of your financial history - "later."
That single word can doom even the most well-intended personal finance goals. I've talked to very rich people, and I've spoken with poor people, and without a doubt, the number one regret most people have when it comes to financing is waiting until "later."
The Conflict: Investment Success and the Battle of Inner Personalities
I was reminded of the story of the two wolves when I read a quote by Wall Street Journal columnist Jason Zweig. When asked the secret to investment success, he answered:
“Within you lurk an angel, a devil, a scholar, and an idiot. If the angel and the scholar ever let their guard down, the devil and the idiot will wreak havoc that will take years of work to undo.”
Zoom Out for Perspective: Thriving Amidst Market Corrections
When you look at your investment account, does your stomach feel like you've eaten a tainted meal? Even seasoned investors sometimes get that queasy feeling as they watch their portfolio balances decline. I imagine this is part of the human condition inherited from ancient times of survival in a world with far more significant risks and fewer resources. Fight or flight.
Atomic Habits: Unleashing Financial Success through Small Changes
The Atomic Habits methodology starts with the premise that "success is the product of daily habits - not once-in-a-lifetime transformations." This doesn't jive with gurus who preach overnight life-altering changes, but it makes a lot of sense.
Clear didn't' explicitly write atomic Habits about personal finance, but the same ideas that help people create habits in other areas of life can help you reach your financial goals.
Anchoring Bias: The Hidden Weight on Your Investment Decisions
Any good boat captain knows the importance of a quality anchor. The earliest water navigators probably struggled with drift much like we do, minus the Yeti coolers of adult beverages. Not to be deterred, these early skippers likely took a heavy rock, tied it to thin tree branches, and created the first anchor. Hundreds of generations of intoxicated lake goers owe a debt of gratitude.
More recently, economists used the anchor to describe a cognitive bias that impacts investor decision-making.
Believing in Your Worth: The Key to Financial Abundance
Money alone doesn't lead to happiness. But does happiness lead to money? I recently had the opportunity to talk to psychotherapist Joyce Marter, author of The Financial Mindset Fix, and her observations from years of clinical work were fascinating.
The Long Game: Mastering Delayed Gratification for Lasting Happiness and Wealth
The habitat of the modern human living in the first world is one where nearly everything is available in short order, if not on-demand. Cell phones are gateways to instant information, entertainment, and communication. At our fingertips, we can immerse ourselves in bingeable television shows, enter the endless rabbit holes of social media, and risk money in high-stakes poker or meme stocks. This environment makes delayed gratification a tricky skill to master.
Redefining Risk: Why Playing It Too Safe Might Be Riskier Than You Think
A down-trodden gambler throws back a shot of whiskey at the poker table and wagers his last buck. That's the image that many see when thinking about risk. It can be a scary concept. But what if there's another alarming risk that's often ignored?
There is. It's the risk of not taking enough risk. According to a Wells Fargo study, approximately 60% of Americans invest too conservatively by focusing more on loss avoidance than growth potential.
Creating Value and Leaving a Mark: Insights from Jeff Bezos' Final Shareholder Letter
The Amazon epic may just be beginning but a significant chapter is coming to an end. Jeff Bezos founded Amazon in 1994 and has since grown it into the e-commerce and cloud computing monster it is today. What began as an online bookstore is now a company that impacts many lives, every day. That growth doesn't happen without a visionary leader.
The Psychology of Fear: How Loss Aversion Impacts Investor Behavior
I take far more calls when the markets are down than up. Investors are more fearful during a drop than they are optimistic during a climb. Positive returns feel good but negative returns are outright painful. These feelings can be attributed to the loss aversion bias, a human tendency that has been impacting investment returns since the beginning.
The Yin and Yang of Investing: Conviction, Humility, and Finding Harmony
After hours upon hours of research, you finally pulled the trigger on your next great investment. Oops! Fast forward six months and you're down twenty-five percent and now your brilliant idea is looking like a total flop…ouch! Being able to admit when you are wrong and take appropriate, rational action once your investment thesis breaks down can help improve your returns.